Truflation vs Official Data: Could Warsh Shake Up the Fed?
Real time data from Truflation shows US inflation plunging to 0.68% as of Feb 9, 2026 well below the Fed’s 2% target and far under the official CPI at 2.7%. This gap is putting Fed policy under the microscope.
Kevin Warsh in the Spotlight
As the frontrunner to replace Powell in May, Warsh may face a historic pivot. Known as a hawk, he could now be pressured to lean dovish:
Admin support: Seen as aligned with the government’s push for lower rates.
Modern metrics: Could use Truflation’s real-time data to justify faster cuts.
Market chatter: Banks speculate up to a 1% rate cut before year end.
Implications for Markets
With inflation potentially falling faster than official numbers suggest, the Fed may act sooner to prevent deflation. Markets currently price in two 25-bps cuts in H2 2026, but a
“Warsh surprise” could accelerate that timeline.
Market Movers: