What Happens at Levels Like This
At a major monthly trendline with deeply oversold RSI, markets usually resolve in one of three ways:
Hold and Base (Most Common)
Price holds the trendline and moves sideways for months while RSI recovers. This is classic late-bear accumulation.
Brief Undercut (Also Common)
A short-lived wick below the trendline shakes out weak hands, followed by a fast reclaim. This often marks final capitulation.
Clean Breakdown (Least Likely, but Possible)
A decisive monthly close below the trendline would signal structural failure. In that case, the next major support sits around $44.
As of now, there is no confirmed monthly close below the trendline.
Risk vs Opportunity
This is not a moment for certainty — it’s a moment for asymmetry.
Downside from here, historically, tends to be incremental, not exponential.
Upside over a full cycle is multiples, not percentages.
Late bear markets do not feel bullish. They feel uncomfortable, boring, and frustrating. That discomfort is often the cost of positioning early, not a sign of being wrong.
Conclusion
Solana is sitting at a cycle-defining level.
A major monthly trendline is being tested
Monthly RSI signals exhaustion
A 77% drawdown and 13 months of decline suggest late-bear conditions
If this level holds, these prices may not be seen again for a long time.
If it breaks decisively on a monthly close, the market may briefly explore the $44 region before a longer-term bottom forms.
Either way, this is no longer a place for emotional reactions — it’s a place for strategic decisions.
Markets don’t reward comfort.
They reward patience at moments like this.