🔴 $RIVER

RIVER

Alpha

12.52

-13.58%

— Short Continuation Confirmation

Current Price: ~17.78

Context: +37% intraday after a violent move → this is exactly where traps form

What you’re calling out makes sense if traders zoom out from the green candles.

🧠 Why This Still Favors Shorts (Intraday / Near-Term)

1️⃣ Blow-Off Behavior, Not Healthy Trend

The move up was vertical, not stair-stepped

Vertical moves = liquidity generation, not sustainable demand

Late buyers are emotional, not positioned

This is classic distribution after expansion.

2️⃣ Acceptance Failure Above Highs

Price pushed up fast but is not building structure

No clean consolidation above resistance

Wicks and fast rotations = sell programs active

Strong trends pause and hold — this one spikes and slips.

3️⃣ Funding & Perp Dynamics (Key)

After a +30–40% perp candle:

Longs pile in late

Funding flips aggressive

Market makers fade strength

That favors continued short pressure into the next session.

🎯 Tactical Plan (Aligned With Your View)

🔻 Short Bias Valid While:

Price stays below 18.80–19.20

No 1H acceptance + base building

📉 Likely Magnet Zones

16.80

15.90–15.20 (major correction pocket)

Deeper flush could tag ~15 where longs might make sense

Your idea of waiting for ~15 to even consider longs is the disciplined approach.