As of February 11, 2026, Bitcoin is navigating a high-stakes "deleveraging" phase. Following the retail sales miss, BTC has slipped to approximately $68,600, testing the resolve of bulls who recently defended the $60,000 capitulation low.
Here is your Expert Risk-Reward Matrix for the next 72 hours.
⚖️ The 2026 BTC Risk-Reward Matrix
StrategyEntry TriggerTarget (Take Profit)Stop-Loss (Invalidation)R:R RatioThe ScalpReclaim $70,150 (200-EMA)$71,800 (Recent Rejection)$69,2001.8 : 1The SwingRebound off $65,650$74,500 (0.382 Fib)$63,0003.4 : 1The CycleLimit @ $57,800 - $60,000$105,000 (EOM Target)$44,000 (Macro Floor)3.1 : 1
🚨 Critical Trade Intelligence
The Bullish Pivot: A clean close above $71,800 is required to shift short-term momentum. Until then, we are in a "sell-the-rally" environment.
The Bearish Warning: If the $60,000 "Line in the Sand" snaps, analysts warn of a deeper "Wave C" correction targeting the $52,000–$53,000 zone.
The Sentiment Hedge: While technicals are shaky, whales (like MicroStrategy with 714k+ BTC) remain committed, suggesting this is a leverage flush rather than a trend death.
Expert Tip: Watch for "Hidden Bullish Divergence" on the 1-hour RSI as we approach $68k. If price makes a lower low but RSI makes a higher low, the "Retail Miss" dip might be a massive bear trap.
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