$MYX My bias is Short, but I'm not selling here. I'm waiting for the inevitable corrective bounce to fail. This is about patience and selling into a liquidity run.
HTF Narrative (4H/1D): The trend is structurally bearish. Price has violently broken down from the 5.25-5.40 consolidation zone, which was the last major support. It's now trading below the entire EMA stack. The Supertrend has flipped to sell, and the Bollinger Bands are expanding downward. However, the sharp drop has pushed the 1H RSI into oversold territory (~28), telegraphing a bounce is due.
LTF Execution (15M/1H): The breakdown candle was high volume. We're now in a low-volume consolidation just above the 4.887 low. This is a bear flag forming. I'm watching for a weak, low-volume rally back into the 5.25 - 5.40 zone (previous support turned resistance & confluence with the 1H EMA(50)).
Market Psychology: The crowd is split. Late longs are trapped from the breakdown, praying for a bounce to exit. New shorts are getting greedy, piling in near the lows. This creates fuel for a liquidity run—a quick pump to 5.40 to stop out these eager shorts and scoop longs' market orders, before resuming down.
Trade Idea: Sell The Retest
· Bias: Short
· Entry Zone: 5.25 - 5.40 (Retest of broken structure & 1H EMA cluster)
· Stop Loss: 5.55 (Above the recent lower high and 4H EMA(9))
· Take Profit 1: 4.95 (Recent consolidation)
· Take Profit 2: 4.887 (Session low, then break)
· Risk/Reward: ~1:4
· Invalidation: A sustained 1H close above 5.55 indicates a stronger counter-trend move is underway. Thesis broken.
Why this works: We're letting the market come to us, selling the first retest of a major breakdown level in a clear HTF downtrend. We're trading the failed rebound, not the collapse. 📉⚡