🚨 WARNING: A BIG STORM IS COMING!!

A US government shutdown is confirmed for February 14!

Polymarket and Kalshi are pricing in a 70% probability.

Read that again.

71%.

We already had an example of a shutdown, let’s compare the data:

Jan 31 to Feb 4, just 5 days:

BTC dumped

ETH dumped

GOLD dumped

SILVER dumped

And that was in only 5 days.

Now imagine if it lasts longer:

Here’s what we could be facing as soon as next week:

– The Jobs Report (NFP): The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is part of the shutdown. If this drags on, the monthly Non-Farm Payrolls report gets delayed.

– Inflation Data (CPI/PPI): The data collectors for the Consumer Price Index stop working. This means we won't know if inflation is going up or down.

– GDP & PCE: The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) typically halts operations, meaning no GDP updates and no PCE (the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge).

– CFTC Reports: The "Commitment of Traders" (CoT) report, which tells us how the big money is positioned, stops coming out.

– The SEC halts mostly everything except emergency enforcement.

– IPO & M&A Stalled: New IPOs and merger reviews get put on hold. If you’re waiting for a deal approval, good luck.

– Historically, shutdowns shave about 0.1% to 0.2% off GDP growth for every week they last.

The longer this lasts, the more the "uncertainty discount" gets priced into stocks.

Get prepared and protect your capital