đš U.S. government shutdown now projected around February 14 â and markets might not handle it well.
Prediction markets are pricing roughly a ~74% chance of the next shutdown by Valentineâs Day as funding for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) lapses if Congress canât agree.
If you think itâs just âpolitics,â think again â uncertainty is the marketâs enemy:
âą Shutdown risk has been climbing as negotiators stall over DHS funding tied to immigration reforms.
âą Past shutdowns have delayed key economic data and rattled confidence, adding pressure to stocks, crypto and bonds.
And this isnât just about office doors closing:
â Federal paychecks can be delayed or paused.
â Government contracts and approvals slow or stop.
â Reports like jobs data get pushed back.
â Market anxiety spikes.
In previous shutdown-linked drawdowns, risk assets have seen sell-offs and heightened volatility as traders price in uncertainty. (Crypto and equities often feel it first.)
Right now many traders think it wonât matter, but complacency has a history of breaking before the headline lands.
Iâve been tracking markets for a decade and called major turning points â including the Bitcoin October all-time high.
Follow and turn on alerts if you want the real heads-up before the news hits.
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