The next major macro catalyst is lining up: U.S. Average Hourly Earnings for January.

And right now
 big banks can’t agree.

This isn’t just another data print — wage growth directly feeds into inflation expectations, Fed policy, dollar strength, and crypto volatility.

Here’s how the giants are positioned:

📊 Annual Wage Growth (YoY)

Most forecasts cluster between 3.5% – 3.7%

đŸ”č 3.5% camp: Scotiabank

đŸ”č 3.6% consensus: Reuters, Barclays, Capital Economics, Dekabank

đŸ”č 3.7% hawkish camp: JPMorgan, Citi, BNP Paribas, Pantheon, HSBC, UBS, TD Securities, Jefferies

Translation:

Nearly half of Wall Street is betting wages stay too hot for comfort.

📈 Monthly Growth (MoM)

Consensus sits near +0.3%

‱ Morgan Stanley & Scotiabank: +0.2%

‱ Most banks: +0.3%

‱ Goldman Sachs: +0.4% (the spicy take)

That Goldman print matters.

A 0.4% surprise would instantly revive “higher-for-longer” fears.

💣 Why this matters for crypto & risk assets

If wages come in HOT:

❌ Dollar strengthens

❌ Rate cut expectations get pushed back

❌ Risk assets feel pressure

❌ BTC likely faces another volatility spike

If wages COOL:

✅ Fed easing narrative returns

✅ Liquidity expectations improve

✅ Crypto gets breathing room

✅ Dip buyers step in aggressively

This single number can flip sentiment fast.

🧠 Bottom line:

Markets are balanced on a knife edge.

Stocks. Bitcoin. Altcoins. Gold.

All waiting on one thing:

U.S. workers’ paychecks.

Smart money is already positioned.

Retail will react after.

Watch the print.

Volatility is loading.

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#Bitcoin #CryptoNews #FedWatch #USData #MarketAlert

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