🚨 THE MARKET IS SCREAMING A WARNING!!
Look at Japan government bonds right now.
10-YEAR: 2.24%
20-YEAR: 3.10%
30-YEAR: 3.51%
40-YEAR: 3.73%
These numbers are completely NOT normal.
Japan is the world’s biggest creditor nation, with net foreign assets around $3.7 TRILLION.
Now add the next piece.
Swap markets are pricing an ~80% chance Japan hikes rates to 1.00% by April.
READ THAT AGAIN.
Japan at 1.00% is the end of the cheap money hub.
That one fact explains a lot.
Because for decades, Japan was the funding engine. People borrowed cheap yen and pushed that money into US stocks, US credit, US tech, and crypto.
When Japan rates reset higher, that engine starts breaking.
And Japan is not small.
So if Japan shifts even a small part of $3.7 TRILLION back home, it forces selling somewhere else.
Now connect the dots.
China has already been stepping back from US Treasuries.
If Japan starts doing the same thing, even slowly, it becomes a real de-dollarization flow, not a headline.
And when the biggest capital pools stop funding the dollar system the same way, the whole market has to reprice.
This is why bonds matter first.
Not because of “rates talk”.
Because it changes where TRILLIONS park their money.
And when that shift starts, liquidity gets low, and risk assets stop acting “normal”.
THIS IS NOT GOOD AT ALL.
I’m watching this into April because this is exactly how a real regime shift starts, with bonds quietly moving before anyone looks up from the crypto chart.
I’ve studied macro for 10 years and I called almost every major market top, including the October BTC ATH.
Follow and turn notifications on.
I’ll post the warning BEFORE it hits the headlines.