#USRetailSalesMissForecast

US Retail Sales Miss Forecast: Consumer Weakness Signals a Macro Shift – Bullish for Crypto?

Published: February 12, 2026

Yesterday’s December 2025 Retail Sales data dropped a bombshell:

🔸MoM: 0.0% (flat) vs consensus +0.4% | Previous +0.6%

🔸Control Group: -0.1% vs +0.4% expected

🔸YoY: slowed to +2.4% from +3.3%

This was the weakest holiday season close in years. Consumers pulled back on big-ticket items (autos, furniture, clothing), credit card usage spiked, and sentiment is turning gloomy.Why this matters for the broader economy

Consumer spending = ~70% of US GDP. A stall here raises questions about the “soft landing” narrative. Markets reacted instantly:

🔸Treasury yields dropped

🔸USD weakened

🔸Rate-cut odds for March jumped back up

Crypto angle – this could be the catalyst we’ve been waiting for

Weak consumer data → softer Fed policy → cheaper money → risk-on assets (BTC, ETH, altcoins) get a tailwind.

We’ve seen this movie before: retail sales misses in 2023–24 preceded major crypto rallies once the Fed pivoted.Is this the final shakeout before the next leg higher, or are we staring at more pain if the consumer stays tapped out?

Square fam – your take?

🔸Bullish (more rate cuts = crypto summer)

🔸Bearish (recession fears incoming)

🔸Neutral (just noise before NFP/CPI)

Drop your prediction + chart below Let’s break this down!#USRetailSalesMissForecast #Bitcoin #Crypto #FedRateCuts #Macro #BinanceSquare