Bank of America expects the Bank of Japan to raise its policy rate from 0.75% to 1.0% at the April 27–28 meeting, with markets already pricing in roughly 80% odds. While a 25-basis-point hike seems modest, investors are focused on whether it could trigger a global yen carry trade unwind and forced deleveraging across risk assets, including Bitcoin.

History shows this risk is real. In August 2024, a sharp yen rally tied to carry trade unwinding sent Bitcoin and Ethereum down as much as 20% within hours, as margin calls and volatility-driven selling cascaded across markets. The BIS later described the episode as a case of forced deleveraging amplified by leverage in crypto derivatives.

However, today’s backdrop differs from 1995. The Federal Reserve still maintains rates far above Japan’s, preserving the structural appeal of borrowing yen to invest in higher-yielding assets. A move to 1% would not eliminate that gap, but it could shift expectations about the future rate path — and expectations drive currency volatility.

The key risk is not the hike itself, but a hawkish surprise combined with crowded positioning and thin liquidity. A sharp yen rally could trigger volatility-control selling, widen cross-currency basis spreads, and pressure leveraged positions, with Bitcoin likely behaving as a high-beta risk asset.

Another channel to watch is Japanese repatriation of U.S. Treasuries. As yield differentials narrow, Japanese institutions may gradually shift funds back home, potentially pushing U.S. yields higher and tightening global financial conditions — indirectly weighing on Bitcoin.

Three scenarios stand out:

A well-telegraphed, gradual hike: limited market impact, muted Bitcoin reaction.

A hawkish surprise: sharp yen rally, deleveraging, and a possible 10–20% Bitcoin drop.

No hike: weaker yen, carry trades rebuild, and Bitcoin benefits alongside other risk assets.