$COLLECT 📉 BIAS: SHORT

Why I’m Looking Here

Retail is panicking into bids, but smart money hasn’t stepped in. Funding just rolled over to 0.005% after days of longs paying to stay long. That’s the smell of trapped bulls finally exhausting.

🧠 Higher Timeframe Context (4H)

Price broke 200 EMA three days ago and never reclaimed. HTF structure is broken—lower highs, lower lows. Last funding spike on Feb 11 at 0.067% marked the exact local top. That’s not noise; that’s distribution.

⏳ Lower Timeframe Execution (15m/1H)

We’re hovering at 0.053, a prior consolidation low. Bulls are defending here, but volume is declining and RSI is making lower highs. Momentum is fading.

I’m not shorting at market. I wait for the relief bounce into liquidity.

🔥 Entry Zone: 0.05440 – 0.05480

This is the underside of broken EMA 15/50 and the former support level from Feb 11. That’s where trapped longs will add, and algos will sell.

🛑 Stop Loss: 0.05685

Above the Supertrend (0.05568) and recent swing high. If price reclaims this, my thesis is wrong.

🎯 Take Profit Levels

TP1: 0.05282 (24H low — first touch)

TP2: 0.05025 (BOLL DN)

TP3: 0.04800 (psychological + bid cluster)

📊 R:R: 1 : 3.2

⚠️ Invalidation

Daily close above 0.05700. That would trap me. Until then, this is just mean reversion in a bear trend.

💣 Psychology

Most traders see -25% and think “bottom.” They’re buying here because price is “cheap.”

But value isn’t value until structure says so. Right now, it doesn’t.