$XPL — I don’t care about “10B supply” unless the value actually flows back to the token.
Here’s what matters:
Who gets XPL?
40% ecosystem growth, 25% team, 25% investors, 10% public sale. So yeah… a lot is held by insiders + incentives.
Unlocks = the real pressure point
Public sale is liquid at mainnet beta (US has a 12-month lock).
Team + investors have a 1-year cliff, then vest monthly.
So the token must earn demand after the cliff, not before it.
Where does demand come from?
Plasma is built for stablecoin payments, even gasless transfers. That’s bullish for adoption… but it also means XPL won’t win because “users need it to transact.”
XPL wins only if it becomes the security + staking asset that everyone wants to hold.
Burn = the value capture lever
Base fees get burned (EIP-1559 style). If the chain gets real volume, burn can turn usage into scarcity.
Who gets revenue?
Base fees burn. Rewards flow to validators/stakers. Early gasless stuff is subsidized — nice for growth, but later the token must stand on fundamentals.
Staking incentives
Stake XPL → secure the settlement layer → earn rewards. Emissions trend down over time with a floor.
Now the only question that matters:
If Plasma becomes a real global stablecoin rail… does $XPL capture value, or does the chain grow while the token stays asleep?
That’s the difference between real… and empty.