As of February 12, 2026, the @Plasma Network $XPL is sending shockwaves through the altcoin market. After a grueling descent that saw the token hit a psychological "pain point" and an all-time low of $0.073 on February 9, we are witnessing a textbook "V-shape" recovery.

Currently trading between $0.082 and $0.10, $XPL has surged over 11% to 20% in the last 24 hours. For the "diamond hands" who weathered the storm, the question isn't just about the pump it's whether the bottom is officially behind us.

🏛️ The Case for "The Bottom"

Several technical and fundamental indicators suggest that the $0.073 floor was a massive institutional "absorption zone":

* Extreme Fear & Oversold RSI: On February 6, $XPL's RSI dipped into the "Deep Oversold" (~35) territory on the 4H chart. Historically, these levels in high-utility L1 projects often signal the end of a bearish cycle.

* Surging Volume: We are seeing a 22.35% spike in 24h trading volume (approx. $58.5M). When volume spikes at the bottom of a downtrend, it typically indicates that "Smart Money" is stepping in to buy the fear.

* Fundamental Resilience: While the price was dropping, the network's TVL remained stable at $6.5B, with daily active users (DAU) holding steady between 18k and 38k. This decoupling of price and utility is a classic bottoming signal.

⚠️ The Remaining Risks: "The September Cliff"

While the immediate rebound looks promising, a professional vision requires looking at the 2026 Roadmap. We are currently in a "Comfort Zone" until August, but a major structural test looms:

* The Massive Unlock: On July 28, 2026, a staggering 2.5 billion XPL (25% of total supply) will unlock for the team and early investors.

* Absorption Capacity: In September 2026, the monthly unlock volume will jump from 88M tokens to 1.75 billion tokens. For the bottom to stay in, the ecosystem must drive enough "PayFi" demand to soak up this liquidity.

🎯 Technical Setup: Levels to Watch

If you are looking for an entry or managing a position, keep these levels on your radar:

* Immediate Support: $0.078 – $0.081. This must hold on any "retest" to confirm the bottom.

* Target 1 (Breakout): $0.095. Reclaiming this level flips previous consolidation support into a new floor.

* Target 2 (2026 Goal): $0.12 – $0.14. Analysts project this range as a fair valuation by year-end, assuming the July unlock is handled smoothly.

🏁 Final Verdict

The $0.073 level looks like a definitive local bottom. The combination of "V-shape" price action and strong on-chain metrics suggests that the worst of the panic selling is over for now. However, $XPL is not a "set it and forget it" trade; it is a high-performance payment machine that requires active monitoring of its supply schedule.

The rebound is real, but the true test of the "Macro Bottom" will be the July 2026 liquidity event. 📈 #Plasma