it looks like a solid, well-thought-out analysis of this recent impulsive move. The price sitting at around 0.2219 after that sharp green candle from the 0.15 area does scream potential reversal energy, especially coming off a longer downtrend with that volume spike behind it. But you're spot on that vertical extensions like this often lead to either a healthy pullback (for better entries) or a quick squeeze higher before gravity kicks in.
I really like how you've structured the two entry options. The conservative pullback play into the 0.19–0.205 zone makes a lot of sense—it's basically the old resistance area turning into support on a retest, which is classic breakout behavior. Placing the stop below 0.165 keeps things protected under the recent structure without getting shaken out too easily, and the targets at 0.23, 0.26, then 0.30+ give a nice stepped approach with improving risk-reward as it progresses.
The aggressive momentum continuation above 0.235 (with a daily close confirmation and volume) is a good complement for those who want to ride strength if it keeps pushing without hesitation. That stop at 0.205 would still offer decent protection if things reverse quickly.
A couple of points that stand out as extra caution flags: the 99-period MA hovering up around 0.26 is indeed a big overhead hurdle—it's not uncommon for price to tag or reject that level before any real sustained upside can develop. If we see a hard rejection at 0.23 in the near term, a deeper retrace back toward that 0.19–0.20 demand zone (or even testing the breakout candle's body) wouldn't be surprising at all. Chasing right here after the big vertical candle is risky, as you noted—better to let the market come to you on a dip.
Overall, short-term bias leaning bullish feels right as long as we hold above that 0.165 invalidation level on a daily close. Waiting for that pullback entry seems like the smarter, higher-probability move in this extended spot.
If you're comfortable sharing your approximate account size and the risk percentage you're willing to take per trade (like 1–2% of total capital), I'd be happy to run the numbers for position sizing on either the conservative or aggressive setup—just to make sure everything lines up cleanly with your risk parameters. What's your typical risk appetite on a trade like this? $ME #ME