$OG on the 1D is setting up like a pretty standard bounce after a downtrend. That big green candle with heavy volume is the market’s way of saying buyers finally showed up, and with price sitting around 0.682 after bouncing off the ~0.444 swing low, the short-term tone has clearly improved. The MA(7) down at roughly 0.565 is a nice sign too, because it gives you a nearby “line in the sand” where price can pull back without instantly breaking the new bullish attempt.
That said, you’re not in empty air above. The MA(25) around 0.72 is the first real problem, and price is already close enough to it that buying right here can easily turn into paying top-of-candle. A lot of these moves will pop hard, tag that first resistance zone, then either consolidate or dump back to retest the base. The MA(99) up near 0.967 is still the bigger ceiling in the background, so even if this does turn into a real reversal, it’s likely going to be a step-by-step climb with pauses and pullbacks rather than a straight line up.
That’s why the pullback plan is the cleaner one. Waiting for 0.60–0.63 is basically saying “let the hype cool off and show me buyers are still there.” That zone lines up well with the breakout base area and gives you a more controlled entry instead of chasing. The stop at 0.55 makes sense because it’s below the MA(7) and below the structure that should hold if the move is legit. If price comes into that area, holds, and starts printing higher lows again, that’s usually the point where the long feels less like a gamble and more like a structured trade. Then the targets stack naturally: 0.72 as the first objective into the MA(25), 0.80 as the next extension, and 0.85 as a push back toward the recent high zone.
The breakout route is fine too, but it’s the one you take only if the market proves it can actually clear supply. If you get a strong daily close above ~0.73, that’s the confirmation that the MA(25) barrier is giving way. Entering on the breakout or the first retest around 0.73–0.75 is the standard play, and keeping the stop around 0.67 gives enough breathing room so you’re not getting clipped by normal chop. If that version triggers, the same targets still apply, just shifted up in expectation: 0.80 and 0.85 first, and then you can keep a runner for higher levels if momentum stays real.
The main “don’t get trapped” signals are pretty straightforward here. If it spikes into 0.72–0.75 and instantly leaves a nasty rejection wick while volume fades, that’s often where late buyers get punished. And if price loses 0.60 on a meaningful close, it increases the odds this was just a pump-and-retrace instead of a real reversal attempt. For now, the bias stays cautiously bullish as long as it holds above that 0.55–0.60 support band, but the higher-probability edge is still patience on the dip rather than buying into resistance. #OG
