Non-farm data rarely delayed! Next week's showdown, will the dollar soar to the sky or crash instantly? Focus on Musk's concept little dog 🐶 p up pi e
The non-farm data's unexpected delay has thrown the global foreign exchange market into the eye of the storm! Interest rate expectations are wavering, political risks are rising, the dollar is strong alone, the euro and pound are restrained, and the yen is under pressure, leading to a complete divergence in the currency landscape.
This week, the market is operating around two main themes: interest rate repricing and political risks. The dollar index closed up weekly, maintaining strength during the data vacuum period thanks to relative interest rate advantages and safe-haven funds clustering, along with expectations stirred by the Federal Reserve leadership. The euro is dragged down by the European Central Bank's restrained attitude, while the pound has lost interest rate support due to the Bank of England's earlier-than-expected rate cut, both passively following the fluctuations of the dollar. The yen, on the eve of the election, has become a disaster area due to fiscal concerns and interest rate differential pressures, with a rapid weakening of the exchange rate triggering discussions on intervention.
The delayed release of the non-farm data is the biggest trump card for next week: stronger data will consolidate expectations for a delayed rate cut, allowing the dollar to continue rising; weak data will ignite bets on rate cuts, putting the dollar directly at risk of a correction. At the same time, the outcome of the Japanese election will determine the fiscal path, and the central bank's statements and changes in risk sentiment will also amplify fluctuations in the global foreign exchange market.
With the suspense of the non-farm data reaching its peak, do you think the dollar will continue its strength next week or will it crash directly? Can the yen welcome a turnaround? Let's discuss your judgment in the comments!