$ASTER Pumps Ahead of Mainnet: Sustained Rally or Pre-Unlock Trap?
Aster is transitioning from a DEX to a sovereign Layer-1. But before you ape in for the March launch, you need to understand the structural volatility ahead. đ§”đ
1ïžâŁ The Mainnet Catalyst (Bullish) đïž The team just confirmed the Aster Chain Mainnet is officially set for March 2026. This isn't just a rebranding; itâs a shift to a privacy-first L1 optimized for derivatives. With over 50,000 testnet participants, the network demand is massive. This Buy the Rumor phase is driving the current break out of the 5-month downtrend.
2ïžâŁ The February 17 Supply Shock (The Risk) â ïž To keep that Power User Badge, you have to track the supply side. On February 17, 2026, a massive 78.11 million $ASTER tokens (worth ~$44.5M) are scheduled to unlock. This represents a significant 6.65% of the circulating supply. Expect volatility as early investors may look to exit into the current liquidity pump.
3ïžâŁ Technical Battle Zone đ
The Resistance: $0.72 - $0.80. We need a daily close above $0.72 to confirm that this isn't a dead cat bounce before the unlock.
The Support: $0.65. This is the line in the sand. If we hold this through the Feb 17 unlock, the path to a $1.00+ mainnet launch remains open.
The Verdict: If $ASTER absorbs the Feb 17 selling pressure and holds the $0.65 support, the rally to March will likely be one of the strongest in the DeFi sector. If it fails, we retest the $0.59 floor.
â Bull Target: $0.95 (Pre-launch peak) đ« Bear Target: $0.59 (Unlock retest)
The banquet is served, but don't get caught at the table when the bill (unlock) arrives. đ„đ