US NFP blowout
The January 2026 Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, released on February 11, 2026, delivered a significant "blowout" surprise that has reshaped market expectations for Federal Reserve policy.
Key Figures & Surprises
Job Growth: The US economy added 130,000 jobs in January, nearly doubling the market consensus of 70,000.
Unemployment Rate: Unexpectedly declined to 4.3% from 4.4%, beating estimates that it would remain steady.
Wage Growth: Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% month-on-month, higher than the 0.3% forecast, with annual wage inflation holding at 3.7%.
Labor Participation: Edged higher to 62.5%, suggesting a modest strengthening in both labor supply and demand.
Market Impact
Federal Reserve Outlook: The strong data has significantly dampened hopes for near-term rate cuts. Money markets have pushed back expectations for the first full rate cut from June to July 2026.
Equities: Stocks showed a mixed but generally resilient reaction. The S&P 500 tested the 7,000-point threshold as investors prioritized economic growth resilience over delayed rate cuts, though some gains were later pared due to hawkish Fed implications.
Currencies & Commodities:
The US Dollar (DXY) initially surged, bouncing off key support levels near $96.
Gold retreated from two-week highs as traders trimmed bets on a March or June cut, languishing near $5,050.
Bitcoin faced downward pressure, falling more than 2% to levels below $67,000.
The "Catch": Annual Revisions
While the January headline was a blowout, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) annual benchmark revisions revealed a much weaker 2025 than previously thought. Total 2025 employment was slashed by nearly 900,000 jobs, reducing the average monthly gain for last year from 49,000 to just 15,000.
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