$BTC — Deep Pullback or Strategic Reset?
Bitcoin is once again approaching a historically significant drawdown zone.
Back in May 2021, BTC corrected roughly -55% from its all-time high before establishing a major macro bottom. In the current cycle, price has already retraced -52.6%, briefly testing the ~$59,800 region.
If this cycle mirrors the previous structure, a full -55% retracement would place Bitcoin near $56,800 — aligning closely with the 5-year moving average, a level that has historically acted as long-term structural support.
That’s not random volatility. That’s macro positioning territory.
What makes this cycle different is the backdrop:
• Spot ETFs now exist
• Corporate treasury exposure is higher
• Institutional infrastructure is mature
• Political and regulatory narratives have evolved
Yet despite stronger fundamentals, price is trading at a comparable percentage drawdown to 2021.
A move toward the 10-year average (~$32,500) would likely require a broader systemic event — not just market rotation.
At the same time, traditional equities remain historically stretched on valuation metrics. Bitcoin may not trade on earnings, but relative to macro risk assets, it’s positioned as one of the more asymmetric anti-inflation plays available.
So the question becomes:
Is this panic-driven capitulation…
or long-term structural accumulation?
