XRP has staged a lively rebound after last Thursday’s sharp sell-off, but the path back up still hinges on one key price area — and the larger downtrend remains intact until that level is cleared. What happened - Last week’s aggressive drop pushed XRP’s RSI to multi-year lows, a move analyst CasiTrades says likely amounts to capitulation. That extreme sell-off set the scene for a strong Wave 4 relief bounce. - Despite the short-term momentum, the broader corrective structure hasn’t been decisively broken. There’s still a meaningful chance of one more bearish leg before the correction is complete. Where price stands now - The bounce has already hit the first Wave 4 target: the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement near $1.52. That area sits inside a confluence with a macro 0.65 retracement, making it a logical spot for temporary resistance. - There’s room for the relief rally to extend toward roughly $1.65, where two important retracements — the 0.5 Fib and a macro 0.618 — converge. CasiTrades identifies $1.65 as the “line in the sand” for XRP’s next big move. What comes next - Bull case: A sustained break and flip of $1.65 into support would shift the outlook bullish. The prudent approach in that scenario is to wait for a confirmed back-test of the reclaimed level and use that as a structured entry rather than chasing the rally. - Bear case: Failure to hold $1.65 would likely open the door for a final impulsive leg lower, with potential downside targets near $1.09 and possibly down toward $0.90. Why this setup matters - The recent relief rally has reset the RSI from extreme oversold territory. If price does drop into the lower targets, that move could create a bullish divergence on momentum indicators — often a precursor to strong long-term buying opportunities. - CasiTrades cautions against panic selling. With major technical levels already tested across exchanges, the anticipated final wave down could be shortened or even fail, which would accelerate the shift toward a more sustainable recovery. Bottom line XRP’s short-term momentum is building after a capitulation-like washout, but the market’s next decisive move depends on whether $1.65 holds as resistance or support. Traders should watch that zone closely: a clean break above could herald a real recovery, while rejection would keep the door open for one more corrective leg lower. Read more AI-generated news on: undefined/news