JPMorgan says Bitcoin’s estimated production cost — often viewed as a soft price floor — has fallen to about $77,000 from $90,000 at the start of the year due to declines in network hashrate and mining difficulty. The drop was driven by unprofitable high-cost miners shutting down and severe winter storms in parts of the U.S. that disrupted mining operations.

Analysts expect this trend to reverse as hashrate is already rebounding, which could push mining difficulty and production costs higher at the next adjustment. They note that recent difficulty declines resemble past miner capitulation phases, where higher-cost miners exit and sell holdings to cover expenses, but believe this washout is now stabilizing.

Looking ahead, JPMorgan remains positive on crypto markets in 2026, forecasting stronger institutional inflows supported by clearer regulation. The bank also reiterates a long-term Bitcoin price target of $266,000 based on volatility-adjusted comparisons with gold once market sentiment improves.