XRP is staging a noticeable Wave 4 relief bounce after last Thursday’s sharp sell-off, but the larger downtrend remains intact — meaning one last leg lower is still possible before a sustainable recovery can take hold. What happened - The dramatic drop pushed XRP’s RSI to multi-year lows, a level of exhaustion that analyst CasiTrades says likely signals capitulation. That flush set the stage for the current rebound, which is typical for a Wave 4 reaction after the market becomes deeply oversold. - Short-term momentum has improved, but overall trend direction hasn’t changed: a decisive break above key resistance is required to confirm a reversal. Key technical levels to watch - First resistance: the initial Wave 4 target at the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement, near $1.52. This area also lines up with a macro 0.65 retracement, creating a strong confluence zone where sellers may reappear. - The make-or-break zone: around $1.65, where the 0.5 Fib and a macro 0.618 retracement converge. A sustained move above $1.65 would materially strengthen the recovery case; failure to hold it would raise the odds of a final impulsive leg down. Bearish scenario - If XRP cannot reclaim $1.65 as support, CasiTrades warns the market could move lower toward targets near $1.09, and potentially as low as about $0.90. That would complete a larger corrective sequence. Bullish scenario and opportunity - The recent relief rally has already normalized the RSI from extreme oversold territory. If price drops to the lower targets, those conditions could produce bullish divergences on momentum indicators — a classic setup for strong long-term buying opportunities. - Conversely, a confirmed break and flip of $1.65 into support would change the outlook in favor of a more sustainable recovery; a clean back-test of that level would offer a more structured entry point than chasing the rebound. Bottom line XRP’s short-term bounce shows promise, but traders should treat $1.65 as the critical pivot. According to CasiTrades, this is not the time for panic selling: major technical levels have been tested, and the anticipated final wave down could be shortened or even fail — potentially marking the start of a stronger recovery. Read more AI-generated news on: undefined/news

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