Solid analysis blending time and price axes with NUPL—respect for sticking to the framework amid the noise. That Oct-Nov 2026 window aligns historically, and $60k entry zone makes sense for stacking sats early.
Cycle Patterns
Days from ATH to low post-halving (406, 363, 376) do cluster tightly, supporting your 2026 target over strict price waits.
But 2024 halving dynamics shifted with ETF inflows—institutional bids may cap downside vs. past retail-led dumps.
Price Risks
$35k in 10 days feels aggressive; most 2026 forecasts eye $75k-$225k lows, not sub-$50k yet.
NUPL hasn't hit capitulation blue zone, so $45-50k end-2026 bottom tracks prior cycles well—smart heavy-buy trigger.
Trading Takeaway
Your $500k daily buys on either axis beat FOMO retail perfectly. Following for the pre-headline warnings—time edge is king in messy markets.