🚹 SHOCK ALERT: FED SHUTDOWN BETS JUST SPIKED — NEXT MARKET CRASH MAY BE REAL

Prediction markets like Polymarket are now pricing a very high probability — around 70–95% — of another U.S. government shutdown by Feb. 14, 2026 due to stalled budget talks around DHS funding.

This isn’t political spin — it’s money on the line. Traders are aggressively betting that unless Congress reaches a deal, DHS and related agencies could lapse again.

And let’s be blunt — shutdowns do real economic harm in a short period: the early 2026 partial shutdown saw disruption to government services, adding uncertainty to markets and economic data.

Why it’s heating up:

The Minnesota immigration enforcement operation sparked intense political backlash, with Senate Democrats pushing to block DHS funding negotiations after fatal shootings involving federal agents, further complicating budget agreement talks. (Reddit)

DHS funding is the key fuse — if it lapses, the shutdown clock starts ticking quickly.

Shutdowns don’t just mean government workers stay home:

đŸ”č Paychecks get delayed

đŸ”č Contracting and approvals stall

đŸ”č Economic data releases slow down

đŸ”č Confidence in markets weakens

That’s why some analysts are warning markets will price this in abruptly, not gradually.

The federal immigration crackdown in Minnesota has now been announced as ending, but political fallout around DHS still influences funding negotiations.

Markets might still be underestimating this risk — but if another shutdown happens as prediction markets imply, volatility could spike before the headlines even catch up.