#CPIWatch 🛢️ Oil Update: Supply Glut Risks vs. US CPI Watch

Oil prices are currently caught in a high-stakes "tug-of-war." While geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and South America provide a temporary floor, the looming shadow of a "super glut" in 2026 is keeping the bears in control.

Here is what you need to know for your trade setup:

📉 The Fundamentals: Why the Pressure?

The 2026 Surplus: The IEA and EIA are sounding the alarm on a massive supply overhang. Projections suggest a surplus of nearly 3.7 to 4 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2026—potentially the largest annual glut on record.

Production Surge: Non-OPEC+ output (led by the US, Brazil, and Guyana) continues to hit record levels, while OPEC+ is preparing for a key decision on March 1st regarding whether to resume production hikes.

CPI Watch: All eyes are on today’s US CPI report. A "hotter" inflation print could signal that the Fed will keep rates higher for longer, strengthening the USD and making oil (priced in dollars) more expensive for global buyers.

📊 Technical Levels to Watch (WTI)

Oil is currently hovering near the $63-$64 range, struggling to find a breakout catalyst.Level Price Significance

Resistance 1 $65.60 Recent gap area; a break above could signal a relief rally.

Resistance 2 $67.20 Key psychological barrier and upper trend channel.

Support 1 $62.40 200-day Moving Average; critical "must-hold" level.

Support 2 $60.00 Major psychological support; a break below opens the door to $55.💡 Trader’s Takeaway

The market is currently bearish-biased due to the supply outlook, but keep a close eye on the US Dollar (DXY) reaction to the CPI data. If inflation cools, we might see a short-term "risk-on" bounce in crude. Conversely, a break below $62.40 could trigger a swift liquidation toward the $60 mark.

Note: Geopolitical "fear premiums" are eroding as record inventories act as a buffer against supply disruptions.

What’s your move? Are you longing the support or riding the glut wave down? 👇#USTechFundFlows $BTC $PAXG