El Salvador’s Bitcoin bet is now carrying a $300M drawdown.
The country holds 7,560 BTC (~$503.8M), down from around $800M at the October 2025 peak. President Nayib Bukele is still buying 1 BTC per day — doubling down on long-term conviction despite short-term volatility.
At the same time, pressure is building:
• Credit default swaps just hit a 5-month high
• IMF reviews are delayed
• $450M in bond payments due this year, ~$700M next year
The International Monetary Fund approved a $1.4B program in 2025, but continued BTC purchases could complicate future disbursements. Markets may react negatively if IMF support weakens.
Interestingly, El Salvador recently diversified with a $50M gold purchase — while Bhutan has been trimming BTC holdings after strong mining profits.
Big picture:
This isn’t just a crypto story anymore — it’s a sovereign risk story.
El Salvador is making a high-conviction macro bet on Bitcoin’s long-term upside. If BTC recovers strongly, it strengthens the country’s balance sheet. If not, fiscal pressure increases.
High risk. High conviction. High stakes.
