On-chain data shows bitcoin investors are locking in losses at levels last seen during the Terra/Luna collapse — but at much higher prices — a pattern analysts say looks more like late-cycle capitulation than a systemic market breakdown. What happened - Axel Adler Jr. flagged that Bitcoin’s Net Realized Profit/Loss (7‑day moving average) plunged into deeply negative territory on Feb. 7 and remained depressed through Feb. 10. That reading is the second deepest on record, behind the June 18, 2022 nadir tied to the Luna/UST implosion. - The metric stayed below a meaningful negative threshold for five straight days, signaling a sustained cluster of sellers and that realized losses are outpacing realized profits on moved coins — i.e., many holders are selling below their purchase price. - A companion gauge, Realized Loss (7DMA), climbed to one of its highest smoothed readings ever. Adler also noted a single‑day realized loss on Feb. 5 that ranks as the second‑largest one‑day loss in Bitcoin’s history. Why this matters — and how today differs from 2022 - The two events look similar in loss magnitude, but a crucial distinction is price: in 2022 those realized-loss levels occurred at much lower BTC prices. Today the same scale of losses is being crystallized after a pullback from recent highs, with Bitcoin trading around $67,000 at the time of Adler’s report. - That price difference suggests this episode is largely a “flushing out” of late bull‑cycle entrants rather than a systemic contagion like the Terra collapse. What to watch next Adler highlighted two indicators traders should monitor for a potential market recovery: 1. Net Realized Profit/Loss (7DMA) moving and staying above zero for multiple weeks — signaling a shift from loss dominance to profit dominance. 2. Realized Loss (7DMA) declining below a lower threshold — showing forced selling pressure is easing. Caveat - The 7‑day smoothing can understate peak stress. Adler points out single‑day spikes in 2022 were roughly three times higher than the weekly average, and continued price weakness now could extend this loss regime and turn a correction into deeper capitulation. Bottom line On-chain metrics mirror the intensity of mid‑2022 losses, but because those losses are occurring at far higher prices, the current signal reads more like late-stage capitulation than an echo of Terra’s systemic collapse. Monitor the Net Realized Profit/Loss and Realized Loss 7DMAs for signs the market is shifting back into profit dominance. Read more AI-generated news on: undefined/news

#BTC #ETF