Bitwise researcher: Bitcoin’s pullback looks driven more by macro fear than crypto fundamentals — and that could mean a big rebound André Dragosch, Bitwise’s Head of Research for Europe, says Bitcoin’s recent slide is less about an idiosyncratic crypto problem and more about markets pricing a deep U.S. recession. In a social post on Wednesday, Dragosch argued that if that recession doesn’t materialize, Bitcoin could be set up for a sharp recovery. Macro still rules Bitcoin, he says Dragosch describes Bitcoin as “fundamentally a macro‑driven asset,” estimating that roughly 90% of BTC’s historical performance can be explained by broad economic forces — growth expectations, global liquidity and monetary policy. He cautions that occasional decouplings do happen, and the market may currently be in one of those transitionary phases. The “quantum discount” narrative Part of the recent divergence, Dragosch notes, may come from crypto‑specific stories rather than traditional macro signals. Some traders are pricing in a so‑called “quantum discount”: concern about long‑term holder selling and speculation that quantum‑resistant cryptography will become essential. He points out that Bitcoin has underperformed Bitcoin Cash (BCH), which some market participants see as having a clearer near‑term roadmap for quantum resilience — a sign this narrative may be at work. Dragosch’s back‑of‑the‑envelope take: markets may be assigning as much as a 25% probability to quantum‑related risk, while he believes a more realistic discount is closer to 5%, since any meaningful “Q‑Day” threat is likely far off. A rare macro mispricing, he argues More recently, Dragosch says Bitcoin’s sensitivity to macro news has picked back up. That sensitivity, combined with weakness in software stocks, has deepened the correction — and created what he calls one of the largest macro mispricings in Bitcoin’s history. By his account, the gap between forward‑looking economic indicators and Bitcoin’s implied growth pricing is now wider than it was during the COVID‑19 shock in 2020. In practical terms, he believes current BTC pricing reflects expectations of a severe U.S. recession. If that downturn fails to appear, the set‑up could offer “one of the more asymmetric risk‑reward opportunities” Bitcoin has seen. Signs macro may be stabilizing Dragosch also highlights macro signals that aren’t uniformly negative: - Industrial commodity markets are showing early momentum. - U.S. ISM data has returned to expansion territory. - Germany’s Ifo business climate and Taiwanese semiconductor export trends are improving. - Historically, global rate‑cutting cycles have preceded stabilization in forward growth expectations. Taken together, these indicators suggest global growth may not be deteriorating as sharply as some fear — an environment that tends to favor risk assets like Bitcoin and reduce relative demand for safe havens such as gold. He also points to the BTC‑to‑gold ratio sitting near levels that historically indicate dislocation, which he views as another signal of potential undervaluation. Price context At the time of writing, Bitcoin traded around $67,591 — roughly 46% below last October’s record peak near $126,000. What to watch Dragosch’s thesis comes down to two things to watch: macro data that would validate or invalidate recession fears (ISM, leading indicators, commodity momentum, central bank policy) and whether quantum‑risk narratives keep gaining traction among holders and traders. If macro improves and the quantum premium proves overblown, Bitcoin could see a meaningful rebound, he suggests. Featured image: OpenArt; chart: TradingView.com. Read more AI-generated news on: undefined/news

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