Bitcoin’s 14th Pivot Is Looming And This Time the Setup Looks Genuinely Bearish
Hey everyone, as we roll toward my 14th monthly pivot point, something feels off with $BTC. Normally, we’d see this nice clean rally building right into the 14th, pumping up hopes and luring in the late buyers before the rug pull.
It’s been the classic fakeout pattern for months price grinds higher, everyone gets excited, then boom, reversal hits and we drop.
But check this out:
we’re not getting that pre-pivot pump this cycle. Instead, BTC is carving out a proper bearish structure heading straight into it. Lower highs, weakening momentum, and the kind of price action that screams distribution rather than accumulation. This is different from the last 8 months where the pattern played out almost mechanically.
Historically, the 14th has acted like a magnet: either it marks a clean low and we bounce hard, or (more often lately) it becomes the trigger for another leg down. With no bullish ramp into it this time, the odds tilt toward continuation rather than reversal. We’ve seen this “no pump = bigger dump” dynamic before in past cycles when sentiment shifts quietly.
This one highlights the classic bearish progression: those higher highs giving way to lower lows, exactly the shift we’re seeing on multiple timeframes. No sugarcoating it the tape doesn’t lie.
Of course, nothing’s set in stone. If we suddenly see aggressive buying and a flip above recent highs before the pivot, the whole narrative changes fast.
But based on what’s printing right now?
The bear case has the edge.
What are you seeing on your charts?
Still holding for the bounce, or prepping for more downside?
Drop your takes below always good to hear different angles.
