January Inflation Expected to Cool, Fed Likely to Keep Rates Steady
The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January will be released this Friday at 9:30 PM Beijing time. Experts expect:
• Headline CPI (overall inflation) to rise 2.5% year-over-year, down from 2.7% last month.
• Core CPI (excluding food and energy) also around 2.5% year-over-year, with a small 0.3% month-to-month increase.
If this happens, inflation would be at its lowest since May 2023, continuing the recent downward trend.
Factors affecting inflation:
• Slower housing cost growth could reduce service prices.
• But tariffs, early-year business price hikes, and travel costs could keep inflation higher.
What analysts say:
• RBC predicts core CPI could rise 0.4% month-to-month, slightly above what most expect.
• Even if inflation cools, it’s unlikely the Federal Reserve (Fed) will change interest rates soon.
• The federal funds rate is currently 3.5%-3.75%, and the Fed is expected to hold rates steady at least through July.
In short: inflation is slowing, but the Fed is taking a cautious “wait and see” approach. One month of data probably won’t change their plans.