$BTC $PAXG
Today's CPI is important because real-time inflation data has been falling sharply over the past 6–8 weeks, but official CPI numbers move slower due to their heavy weighting toward shelter and services. The market is expecting around 2.5%–2.7% YoY. If CPI prints below 2.5%, especially near 2.3%–2.4%, it would reinforce the disinflation trend and likely support gold and crypto (Crypto only if the market interprets it as growth weakness, not just cooling inflation) as rate-cut expectations increase and real yields soften. A print near expectations would keep markets choppy. However, if CPI surprises to the upside above 2.8%–3.0%, it could strengthen the higher for longer narrative, pressure liquidity expectations, and weigh on crypto while also creating short-term volatility in gold. This print alone may not be the full trigger, but it can start shaping the next liquidity move.