CPI DAY: This Print Could Move EVERYTHING ⚠️

This isn’t just another #CPI print.

It could set the tone for stocks, crypto, and rate cut expectations.

Here’s the full macro setup 👇

1️⃣ Inflation Expectations

Forecast:

• Headline: 2.5% y/y (down from 2.7%)

• Core: expected hotter m/m

The problem?

Core CPI forecasts are unusually wide (0.25%-0.42%).

That tells you one thing: uncertainty is high.

A softer number? Smaller upside.

The skew is asymmetric.

2️⃣ Labor Market Cracks Showing

• Jobless claims: 227K (slightly above estimates)

• Continuing claims rising

• Home sales down 8.4% (worst in 4 years)

• Payroll growth slowing trend

This points to cooling demand.

Cooling demand → lower inflation over time.

But also → higher recession odds.

3️⃣ Rate Cuts? Not So Fast

There will be no rate cut going to happen in the upcoming march meeting

Markets currently price limited cuts.

If CPI comes in hot today, rate cut odds fall even more.

4️⃣ Liquidity Risk

Government shutdown risk is prevailing .

Shutdowns drain liquidity.

Markets don’t like that.

So here’s the real tension:

Inflation needs to cool.

Growth is already slowing.

Liquidity risks are rising.

If CPI surprises hot → risk-off spike.

If CPI surprises soft → relief rally.

Either way, VOLATILITY is likely.

This isn’t just an inflation report.

It’s a macro stress test. 👀