Markets rarely fall because one thing breaks. They fall when confidence thins out everywhere at once. This week felt like that.
On February 13, U.S. equities closed sharply lower, with tech stocks leading the slide as investors questioned stretched AI valuations. The selloff in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite quickly spilled into crypto. Bitcoin dropped toward $66,000, down more than 3% on the day and heading for a fourth consecutive weekly loss. Crypto-linked equities such as Coinbase, Marathon Digital Holdings, and Riot Platforms also declined as risk appetite faded across the board.
The macro backdrop explains much of the pressure. Strong U.S. jobs data and sticky inflation have pushed expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts further out. When hopes for cheaper liquidity get delayed, high-beta assets usually feel it first. At the same time, concerns that AI-related stocks had run too far too fast triggered a broader de-risking in technology shares, dragging correlated crypto assets lower.
On-chain and flow data confirm the defensive tone. Stablecoin dominance has surged, signaling that capital is rotating into less volatile assets. Realized losses on-chain have spiked, suggesting that short-term holders are capitulating into weakness. Meanwhile, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have shifted from consistent net inflows to periods of net selling, adding incremental supply to an already fragile market. Coinbase’s surprise Q4 2025 loss, tied partly to crypto outflows, reinforced the narrative of cooling speculative activity—even as long-term holders continue to accumulate quietly in the background.
From a technical perspective, the chart is sending mixed but cautious signals. Bitcoin’s RSI has entered oversold territory, which historically can precede relief bounces. However, the MACD remains in bearish alignment, indicating that downside momentum has not fully reset. Key support sits in the $60,000–$62,000 range. A decisive break below that zone would open the door toward the $50,000 area, where stronger structural demand may emerge.
Longer-term trend markers are now in focus. The 365-day moving average and the 200-week EMA act as structural guardrails for the broader bull cycle. As long as price holds above these levels on a sustained basis, the macro uptrend argument remains intact. A clean break below them, however, would confirm a deeper corrective phase rather than a routine pullback.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has plunged into “extreme fear.” Historically, that zone has often formed near medium-term bottoms—but it is also where volatility intensifies and forced liquidations accelerate. High leverage positions are especially vulnerable in this environment.
For traders, risk management matters more than predictions. Position sizing should be conservative, with stop-losses placed clearly below key support levels. For long-term investors, dollar-cost averaging during periods of weakness can reduce timing stress, provided conviction in the broader thesis remains strong.
This is not the first time liquidity tightened and sentiment cracked. The real question now is whether this is a healthy reset within a larger cycle—or the start of a more prolonged repricing of risk.
$NAORIS $DEEP #CPIWatch #USNFPBlowout #TrumpCanadaTariffsOverturned #USRetailSalesMissForecast #USTechFundFlows $BTC
