I know this isn’t what people want to hear. Everyone wants the pain to be over. Wants the chart to be clean again. Wants to believe that the worst already happened and now we just grind higher.
Markets don’t work like that.
Look at the chart.
Not to predict. Not to be clever.
Just to study behavior that keeps repeating, cycle after cycle.
Every single Bitcoin cycle looks roughly the same:
• A blow-off top
• Then a long, messy distribution phase
• And only after that do we get the real flush — the one where people stop talking about crypto altogether
There has never been a cycle where:
the top forms and the bottom shows up just 4 months later.
Not once.
I keep hearing:
“This cycle is different”
“ETF changed everything”
“Liquidity is deeper now”
“We’re front-running the bottom”
Sure, front-running happens.
But historically it’s 1–2 months early, not 6–8 months.
Markets don’t hand out free wins.
That $60K area?
To me, it looks more like a pause than a finish line.
A place where people relax and say:
“Okay, we’re safe now.”
And that’s usually when risk quietly builds again.
If Bitcoin continues to respect the 4-year cycle structure:
• The real bottom tends to form in Q3 or Q4
• And a true capitulation zone sits around $40K–$45K
Not because those numbers sound dramatic.
But because:
• They line up with historical drawdowns
• They hurt enough to break confidence
• And they arrive when fatigue is maxed out
My honest take?
Bottom don’t form when people feel comfortable.
They form when people stop wanting to hear anything bullish at all.
So if right now:
• Every dip gets aggressively bought
• Timeline is full of optimism
• And the dominant belief is “the worst is behind us
Then no — I’m not convinced we’ve seen the cycle low yet.
Not trying to scare anyone.
Not trying to be bearish for attention.
Just calling it the way it’s looked
every single time before.
The market doesn’t reward being early.
It rewards being right at the right moment
