Looking at $BTC ’s historical price structure, there’s an interesting pattern that keeps repeating across cycles.
Every major bear market bottom has formed below the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the prior bull run. In early cycles, price wicked significantly beneath that level before reversing. In more recent cycles, however, the deviation below 0.618 has become progressively smaller.
In other words, the market has been bottoming closer and closer to that key retracement level with each cycle.
Today, the 0.618 retracement sits around $57K.
That makes it a technically significant area — not because Fibonacci levels are magic, but because they often reflect collective psychology. The 0.618 level tends to represent the point where a deep correction transitions into long-term structural support, especially in strong macro uptrends.
If history rhymes, two possibilities emerge:
• Either we briefly undercut 0.618 as in past cycles before reversing
• Or this cycle compresses further, with price holding near or just below it
The broader question is whether market structure continues to mature — meaning shallower relative drawdowns over time — or if macro conditions force a deeper reset.
Nothing guarantees the 0.618 holds. But historically, it has been a zone where long-term accumulation has been rewarded.
The real question isn’t just “How low do we go?”
It’s whether this cycle continues the pattern of diminishing downside volatility — or breaks it.