US spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to lose money — on Thursday, $410.4m flowed out of the funds. The week is already down $375m, and if there are no inflows on Friday, this will be the fourth consecutive week of outflows.
AUM has fallen to ~$80bn versus a peak of nearly $170bn in October 2025.
📉 Standard Chartered lowers forecast
The bank cut its 2026 BTC target from $150K to $100K and allows for a drop to $50K before recovery.
For ETH, the forecast is $1,400 at the bottom and $4,000 by year-end.
The wording is tough: “capitulation” is possible in the coming months.
💸 Who is losing the most
— BlackRock IBIT: −$157.6m
— Fidelity FBTC: −$104.1m
— Ether ETF: −$113m in one day
— XRP ETF: first outflows since February 3
— Solana ETF — the only one in positive territory (+$2.7m)
🔎 Is the bottom not reached yet?
CryptoQuant believes the key support is around $55K. Cycle indicators are in a bearish phase, but not in “extreme bear,” which historically precedes the final bottom.
BTC is trading around $66K, LTHs are selling near breakeven. Historically, final reversals formed when long-term holders were down −30–40%.
📌 Conclusion
ETF capital is leaving, banks are cutting targets, the cycle remains bearish.
There are no signs of panic capitulation yet — which means the market may require an even more painful flush before a real reversal.