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$XRP is at a critical juncture right now. Let me break down what's happening on the 1-hour chart and why the next move could be MASSIVE.
The Setup
XRPUSD is trading at $1.4609 after bouncing from the green support zone around $1.35-$1.40. We're seeing a potential ABC correction pattern playing out - price spiked to $1.50 (B), dropped to support (A), and now we're waiting to see if (C) wave takes us lower or if this is just reaccumulation before the next leg up.
The big question: Is this a healthy pullback before ATH push, or are we heading to $1.25?
Why This Setup Matters
Bounced cleanly from green support zone (A) - buyers defending
Volume equilibrium (Z-Score near zero) = calm before the storm
MASSIVE institutional news - Brad Garlinghouse on CFTC committee
XLS-85 Token Escrow live on mainnet - game changer for institutions
Aviva partnership for tokenizing real-world assets
BUT - XRP down 25.8% YTD, worst performance since 2023
The News is MIXED (Critical Context)
Bullish catalysts:
Brad Garlinghouse appointed to CFTC Innovation Advisory Committee - HUGE
XLS-85 Token Escrow launched on XRPL mainnet (Feb 12) - institutional DeFi ready
Aviva Investors partnership - tokenizing RWAs on XRPL
Ripple expanding presence in UK and Europe
Coinbase, Robinhood CEOs also on CFTC committee - crypto legitimacy
Token escrow = stablecoins, RWAs, institutional settlement on XRPL
0.2 XRP reserve per escrowed asset = supply lock-up potential
Bearish/Risk factors:
XRP down 25.8% YTD - worst return since 2023
Price fell from $2.40 yearly high to $1.14 low
Declining channel on chart - bearish structure
Futures Open Interest dropped from $10.94B to $2.26B - weak confidence
Zero ETF inflows on Thursday - institutional demand cooling
Volume Z-Score near zero = consolidation, not momentum
Analysts warning of potential drop to $1.15-$1.25
Key Levels I'm Watching
Resistance:
$1.50 - Recent high / Wave (B) top
$1.54 - Friday's high (key breakout level)
$1.78 - Major resistance zone
$2.10 - Psychological level / next cycle target
$2.40 - 2026 yearly high
Support:
$1.40 - Current support / green zone (A) - CRITICAL
$1.35 - Lower green zone boundary (must hold)
$1.25-$1.35 - Wave (C) target / green support zone
$1.15 - Analyst target / danger zone
$1.12 - Friday's low / major support
My Game Plan
Bullish scenario: If $XRP holds the $1.35-$1.40 green zone and breaks above $1.50 with volume, we could see a rapid move to $1.54, then $1.78. The institutional news is MASSIVE - Brad on CFTC committee + XLS-85 live = legitimacy + utility. If institutions start deploying capital on XRPL (as analysts suggest), XRP could rocket. Target: $2.10+ retest.
Bearish scenario: If we lose $1.35 support, the ABC correction completes with Wave (C) dropping to $1.25-$1.30 green zone. Break below $1.25 = danger zone, target $1.15-$1.12. The YTD performance is brutal (-25.8%), and weak ETF flows + declining OI suggest institutions are waiting. Volume equilibrium = no momentum yet.
Most likely scenario: I think we consolidate between $1.35-$1.50 for a bit longer while the market digests the institutional news. The XLS-85 upgrade is HUGE but takes time to show impact. Watch for volume spike - that's your signal. If we hold $1.40 = accumulation. If we break $1.35 = Wave (C) to $1.25.
The Bottom Line
I'm cautiously BULLISH on fundamentals but NEUTRAL on technicals. The institutional developments are incredible - CFTC committee, XLS-85 escrow, Aviva partnership. This is the kind of news that changes trajectories long-term.
BUT the chart is weak. Declining channel, poor YTD performance, weak volume. The market needs TIME to absorb the news and for institutions to actually deploy capital.
My bias: If $1.35-$1.40 holds = long to $1.78-$2.10. If $1.35 breaks = wait for $1.25 retest.
The $1.35-$1.40 green zone is the line in the sand. Watch it like a hawk.
What do you think? Reaccumulation before ATH push or ABC correction to $1.25? Drop your take! 👇
#Xrp🔥🔥 #analysis #TrendingTopic
