The period between February 16-22, 2026, will be quite critical for markets in terms of both macroeconomic data and geopolitical developments.
In particular, US inflation data and expected court rulings regarding the Trump administration's trade policies could increase volatility.
Critical Macroeconomic Data and Fed Agenda
Data from the US economy will be closely watched to determine the Fed's 2026 interest rate cut path.
*Fed Meeting Minutes (Thursday, the minutes of the monetary policy meeting will be released.
The market will be looking for clues about the pace and timing of interest rate cuts.)
US Core PCE Data (Friday, Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), the Fed's most important inflation indicator, will be released.)
A better-than-expected figure could postpone interest rate cut expectations.
US GDP (GDP) Data (Friday, preliminary growth data for the fourth quarter of 2025 will affect market sentiment.)
Geopolitical and Legal Developments
Trump's Tariff Decision (February 20) The US Supreme Court is expected to issue its opinion on Trump's "Independence Day" tariff policy.
This decision could directly impact global trade and risk appetite.
US-Iran Negotiations
Trump's Statements suggesting a potential new round of talks with Iran are critical for energy prices and geopolitical risk premiums.
Ukraine Talks (February 17-18: A Ukrainian delegation is expected to hold talks in the US).
DeepSeek V4 Launch: Chinese AI giant DeepSeek is expected to unveil its next-generation flagship model, the V4, this week.
This could create activity in AI-focused crypto projects.
Asian Market Holidays: Stock exchanges in China, Hong Kong, South Korea, and Vietnam will be closed for much of the week due to the Lunar New Year (Spring Festival).
This could lead to decreased liquidity and sudden price movements in Asian sessions.