The Real Dollar Diversion Story Is Hiding in Europe
While everyone is fixated on emerging markets and geopolitical rivals moving away from the USD, Bank of America drops a critical insight: Look West, not East.
According to Jin10, BofA argues that the next wave of structural dollar selling won't be driven by central banks in Asia or the Middle East, but by European investors.
The Core Thesis:
European holdings of U.S. assets are massive, but they come with low hedge ratios. This means that European investors holding U.S. stocks haven't fully hedged their currency exposure back to the Euro.
The Trigger:
If the Dollar enters a period of sustained instability or weakness, these investors are exposed. While current fund flows don't show a mass exodus yet, the risk lies in incremental flows.
The Prediction:
Going forward, new capital is likely to favor non-U.S. markets. As money rotates out of the U.S., those low hedge ratios become a major liability, potentially accelerating the move away from the Dollar and amplifying currency volatility.
The Bottom Line:
Forget the headlines about de-dollarization via geopolitics. The real shift might be a financial one, stemming from portfolio rebalancing in Europe.