Circle shares surged 35% following the release of its Q4 2025 earnings, but analysts say the explosive move was driven less by the numbers and more by positioning dynamics. Hedge funds had built significant short exposure into the report, setting the stage for a high-probability short squeeze, according to a February 20, 2026, update from 10x Research. The firm had explicitly forecast a strong rebound in Circle shares ahead of the move.
In a follow-up report on February 21, 2026, 10x Research highlighted Circle as one of its “Top Charts,” noting the stock benefited from rapid inflows into the IQMM Genius Money Market ETF, which raised $18 billion in just a few days. The speed and scale of these inflows further strengthened the bullish setup, amplifying the upside potential for investors positioned for a short squeeze.
The sharp moves extended beyond Circle, impacting other crypto assets including Coinbase and Bitcoin. Analysts note that while Circle was a clearly flagged bullish setup, the magnitude of the reaction reflected broader positioning dynamics across the crypto market. With another potential catalyst approaching, markets may soon refocus on fundamentals, tempering the volatility seen during this event.