📊 WIN RATE & FEAR & GREED INDEX (FGI) ANALYSIS – updated through 2025-09-20


Community daily win-rate data shows a very weak FGI–win rate correlation (≈ -0.07). Win rate does not move linearly with FGI; the “Extreme Greed” phase remains the riskiest for performance.


🔍 Quick take

In Fear (20–<40) and Neutral (40–60), performance hovers around the average, with Neutral slightly higher. Greed (60–<80) shows no clear improvement. Extreme Greed (≄80) drags win rate down notably. Extreme Fear (<20) has a small sample, so treat it as indicative only.


📉 Average win rate by FGI band (with day counts)

😹 Extreme Fear (<20): 45.93% — n=5

😟 Fear (20–<40): 44.91% — n=92

😐 Neutral (40–60): 45.29% — n=118

😃 Greed (60–<80): 44.95% — n=205

đŸ€‘ Extreme Greed (≄80): 40.52% — n=25 (lowest)


Share of days beating the 44.80% average win rate by band:

Extreme Fear 60.00% ‱ Fear 52.17% ‱ Neutral 52.54% ‱ Greed 47.32% ‱ Extreme Greed 12.00%.

This reinforces that “Extreme Greed” is where discipline matters most; Fear/Neutral tend to deliver relatively stable, around-average outcomes.


📈 Implications for scalping

➀ FGI ≄80: lower TP expectations, tighten SL, favor partial/early takes when momentum weakens.

➀ FGI 20–<80: stick to R:R discipline; avoid stretching TP due to FOMO (differences across Fear/Neutral/Greed aren’t large enough to justify a wholesale strategy change).

➀ FGI <20: limited sample—handle cautiously; keep risk management front and center.


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