📈 Oil is Climbing — But the Chart Still Looks Fragile


WTI Crude is trading around $61.8 (+1.83%), showing a short-term rebound — but technically, it’s still fighting resistance.


đŸ”· Key Technical View (4H Chart)

🔾 Price rebounded above 0.786 Fib ($61.69) after defending the local bottom at $60.40.

🔾 Both SMA50 and SMA200 are still above the price — meaning the structure remains bearish, even with a short-term bounce.

🔾 RSI sits near 48.7, neutral momentum — no clear overbought signal yet.

Local downtrend line still intact (watch for breakout above $62.7 - $63.3 to confirm reversal).



📊 Macro Angle

Oil rising = less pressure for the Fed to cut rates.

If WTI stays above $62, it can strengthen inflation expectations → bad news for early easing.

If the price turns lower again, the narrative flips — weaker demand = more rate cut probability.


⚙ Key levels to watch

🔾 Resistance: $62.7 / $63.3

🔾 Support: $61.7 / $60.4


🧭 Market still in “wait mode” — until NFP and next week’s Fed comments confirm direction.


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