📊 Markets are now screaming: “Rate cut is coming.”

100% probability locked in for next week.

But here’s the twist — the cut itself isn’t the story.

The signal behind it is. ⚡

When the market prices in 100%, uncertainty dies — and expectation takes control.

So the real surprise? Not if the Fed cuts... but what happens next.

💡 Rate cuts are predictable.

Liquidity shifts are not.

Because cutting rates ≠ adding liquidity.

The real game runs deep —

in reserves, repo flows, and credit spreads.

That’s where the truth hides.

🚨 In previous cycles → policy guided liquidity.

This time → liquidity is guiding policy.

The market moves first; the Fed simply follows.

For smart traders 👇

✅ Price in the move before it happens

✅ Fade the first emotional rally

✅ Track what truly matters: ON RRP, TGA, and bank reserves

Because the flow drives the show.

The Fed just narrates it.

– 25bps = “We’re cautious.”

– 50bps = “We’re behind.”

The number doesn’t move markets — the tone does.

🧭 Policy shapes the headline.

💧 Liquidity shapes the trend.

This round, the market isn’t reacting —

it’s leading.

And the Fed is about to follow the trail it never wanted to see.