Thoughts on the things that influence (PART 1)

💥 Crypto liquidations and leveraged wipeouts  💸

Risk: Elevated leverage on perpetual futures can trigger cascade liquidations and amplify downside volatility.

For: A major liquidation wave on Binance signals stressed margin positioning and fragile risk appetite.

Against: Crypto can trade idiosyncratically and does not always drag broader risk assets; correlations with equities are unstable.

 🏛️ U.S. government shutdown ⏸️

Risk: Underfunded agencies and delayed macro releases raise uncertainty and near-term volatility.

 For: Political standoffs typically dampen risk appetite and pressure growth-sensitive assets.

Against: Shutdowns are usually temporary and rarely morph into systemic crises.

🥇Gold at all-time highs  📈

Risk: ATH in gold alongside overbought signals is a classic risk-off tell (flight to safety).

F: Defensive rotation into gold often tracks rising credit concerns and tighter financial conditions.

Against: Gold can retrace after impulsive rallies, opening a tactical window for risk assets to bounce.

 🏦Banking stress and credit quality🔥

Risk: Worsening asset quality and widening bank CDS raise systemic risk via liquidity and funding channels.

F: Fears of a credit event can overshadow positive data and tighten financial conditions.

Against: Large banks remain well-capitalized and benefit from regulatory support, localizing shocks.

📊Sticky inflation and input costs🔥

Risk: Persistent core inflation, wage momentum, and higher input costs sustain a hawkish policy bias.

F: If inflation expectations fail to ease, the premium for money stays high, compressing equity multiples.

Against: Base effects and supply-chain normalization can gradually relieve inflation pressure.

#bitcoin #ETH #MarketPullback #StrategyBTCPurchase #cryptocurrencies

2 part

Looking for your comments