Publier
GK-ARONNO
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xrp elliot wave probability (update) 📊
$XRP
{spot}(XRPUSDT)
{future}(XRPUSDT)
The current large dip is giving us more clarity.
My primary scenario is still the same:
We finished a wave I and are finishing a wave II now on the weekly timeframe.
The wave C of wave II has to move in 5 waves to the downside. After the crash of october 10th it has only been 3 waves and ending with such a wick never satisfies me as price needs to form a range at the bottom before moving back to the upside.
So we still expect another wave 5 to the downside that could be happening right now. The thing is that the wave 3 was a huge manipulation wick because of the tariff drama which makes it very unlikely and not even preferable for a wave 5 to take out that low as it would be larger than the wave 3. This is why consideration is that wave 5 is a truncation where it can't take out the low of wave 3.
Other bullish scenario?
I would count the the wave I as wave I, II and III and we are now in an expanded flat in a wave IV. The reason why this is not the primary scenario is because of the crash of october 10th that took out the 0.618 fib of wave 3. But this is on the XRPUSDT chart. If we take the XRPUSD chart of coinbase, the bottom was at 1.78 and we never hit the 0.618 fib. In that case this elliot wave count is still valid and in this case the wave 5 to the downside HAS to take out the wave 3 BUT the 0.618 fib sits at 1.58. The wave needs to stay above that to not invalidate a wave IV. in any case, both scenarios whether its a wave II or a wave IV still target the 5$ region at least.
Bearish scenario?
I can also count 5 waves on the weekly timeframe and with that the cycle has ended and we have started an ABC to the downside with price levels targeting as low as 0.70$. The reason why this has the least probability right now is because the wave V in this scenario doesnt have 5 waves (april low till july all time high). I can only see 3 waves to the upside which means it was only corrective (like an expanded B wave for example)
A lot of reading but being prepared for everything is key to win this game!
Share your opinion! Peace!
{spot}(XRPUSDT)
{future}(XRPUSDT)
The current large dip is giving us more clarity.
My primary scenario is still the same:
We finished a wave I and are finishing a wave II now on the weekly timeframe.
The wave C of wave II has to move in 5 waves to the downside. After the crash of october 10th it has only been 3 waves and ending with such a wick never satisfies me as price needs to form a range at the bottom before moving back to the upside.
So we still expect another wave 5 to the downside that could be happening right now. The thing is that the wave 3 was a huge manipulation wick because of the tariff drama which makes it very unlikely and not even preferable for a wave 5 to take out that low as it would be larger than the wave 3. This is why consideration is that wave 5 is a truncation where it can't take out the low of wave 3.
Other bullish scenario?
I would count the the wave I as wave I, II and III and we are now in an expanded flat in a wave IV. The reason why this is not the primary scenario is because of the crash of october 10th that took out the 0.618 fib of wave 3. But this is on the XRPUSDT chart. If we take the XRPUSD chart of coinbase, the bottom was at 1.78 and we never hit the 0.618 fib. In that case this elliot wave count is still valid and in this case the wave 5 to the downside HAS to take out the wave 3 BUT the 0.618 fib sits at 1.58. The wave needs to stay above that to not invalidate a wave IV. in any case, both scenarios whether its a wave II or a wave IV still target the 5$ region at least.
Bearish scenario?
I can also count 5 waves on the weekly timeframe and with that the cycle has ended and we have started an ABC to the downside with price levels targeting as low as 0.70$. The reason why this has the least probability right now is because the wave V in this scenario doesnt have 5 waves (april low till july all time high). I can only see 3 waves to the upside which means it was only corrective (like an expanded B wave for example)
A lot of reading but being prepared for everything is key to win this game!
Share your opinion! Peace!
Avertissement : comprend des opinions de tiers. Il ne s’agit pas d’un conseil financier. Peut inclure du contenu sponsorisé. Consultez les CG.