📊 Market Overview & Key Drivers

Macro Pressure

Bitcoin is facing headwinds from fading expectations for a near-term rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve.

TechStock²

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The Economic Times

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Broader risk-off sentiment is impacting $BTC with investors rethinking exposure to high-beta assets.

TechStock²

ETF Flows Are a Double-Edged Sword

Institutional demand through spot Bitcoin ETFs remains significant, but there was a recent large session of outflows (~$869.9M), intensifying price pressure.

TechStock²

These

BTC

70,399.21

+2.25%

$BTC ETF flows are creating a tension: long-term structural demand vs short-term redemptions.

TechStock²

On-Chain Behavior & Investor Mood

On-chain data shows rising activity even as sentiment among traders turns fearful — a contrarian bullish sign for some analysts.

TechStock²

But long-term holders have been distributing more recently, which raises caution.

TechStock²

🔎 Technical Setup & Scenarios

Support & Resistance:

Key support is around $109K–$110K. If this breaks, the next major zone is in the $90K–$98K range.

The Economic Times

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Aurpay

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On the upside, major resistance lies between $112.5K and $125K.

The Economic Times

Potential Paths:

Bullish: If BTC defends the $109K zone and ETF inflows recover, a move toward $120K+ is possible.

aiTrendview

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Bearish: A break below support could lead to a drop toward $90K, especially if macro and ETF selling intensifies.

Barron's

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✅ Bottom Line

Bitcoin is in a delicate phase: strong long-term demand via ETFs and on-chain accumulation, but rising macro risk and profit-taking from long-term holders could trigger more volatility. For now, the $109K–$110K region is key. Holding it may pave the way for the next leg up; breaking it could lead to a sharper correction.

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