📊 WINRATE & MARKET SENTIMENT (FGI) ANALYSIS – updated to 2025-11-15


Daily community scalping winrate data still shows a very weak correlation between FGI and winrate (≈ -0.14). Winrate does not follow FGI in a linear way; the “Extreme Greed” zone remains the riskiest area for performance.


🔍 Quick interpretation

In the Fear band (20–<40), performance is currently the strongest; Neutral (40–60) and Extreme Fear (<20) hover around the overall average. Greed (60–<80) does not show any clear improvement. Extreme Greed (≄80) pulls the winrate down sharply. Extreme Fear (<20) now has more data but is still a small sample, so any interpretation remains tentative.


📉 Average winrate by FGI band (with number of days)

😹 Extreme Fear (<20): 45.46% — n=8

😟 Fear (20–<40): 46.17% — n=123

😐 Neutral (40–60): 45.24% — n=131

😃 Greed (60–<80): 44.92% — n=214

đŸ€‘ Extreme Greed (≄80): 40.52% — n=25 (lowest)


Share of days beating the overall average winrate of 45.10% by band:

Extreme Fear 50.00% ‱ Fear 58.54% ‱ Neutral 48.85% ‱ Greed 44.39% ‱ Extreme Greed 12.00%.


📈 Implications for scalping

➀ FGI ≄80: lower TP expectations, tighten SL, and prioritize early profit-taking when momentum weakens.

➀ FGI 20–<80: keep R:R discipline; avoid stretching TP too far out of FOMO (the differences between Fear/Neutral/Greed are not large enough to justify a complete strategy shift).

➀ FGI <20: sample is still small, so handle with caution; the focus should remain on trade management.


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