đ WINRATE & MARKET SENTIMENT (FGI) ANALYSIS â updated to 2025-11-15
Daily community scalping winrate data still shows a very weak correlation between FGI and winrate (â -0.14). Winrate does not follow FGI in a linear way; the âExtreme Greedâ zone remains the riskiest area for performance.
đ Quick interpretation
In the Fear band (20â<40), performance is currently the strongest; Neutral (40â60) and Extreme Fear (<20) hover around the overall average. Greed (60â<80) does not show any clear improvement. Extreme Greed (â„80) pulls the winrate down sharply. Extreme Fear (<20) now has more data but is still a small sample, so any interpretation remains tentative.
đ Average winrate by FGI band (with number of days)
đš Extreme Fear (<20): 45.46% â n=8
đ Fear (20â<40): 46.17% â n=123
đ Neutral (40â60): 45.24% â n=131
đ Greed (60â<80): 44.92% â n=214
đ€ Extreme Greed (â„80): 40.52% â n=25 (lowest)
Share of days beating the overall average winrate of 45.10% by band:
Extreme Fear 50.00% âą Fear 58.54% âą Neutral 48.85% âą Greed 44.39% âą Extreme Greed 12.00%.
đ Implications for scalping
†FGI â„80: lower TP expectations, tighten SL, and prioritize early profit-taking when momentum weakens.
†FGI 20â<80: keep R:R discipline; avoid stretching TP too far out of FOMO (the differences between Fear/Neutral/Greed are not large enough to justify a complete strategy shift).
†FGI <20: sample is still small, so handle with caution; the focus should remain on trade management.