🚨 Here’s what most people overlook:

When QT ends, the Fed stops pulling liquidity out of the system.

That’s not stimulus —

but it does remove the liquidity headwind markets have been fighting for two years.

Historically, when the Fed moves from tightening → neutral, two things happen:

1️⃣ Downside pressure fades. Risk assets stop getting quietly choked by reserve runoff.

2️⃣ The next big move depends entirely on whether the Fed begins adding liquidity afterward.

Even small reserve injections can move markets quickly.

This won’t look like a 2020-style liquidity surge — it’s more of a controlled drip that stabilizes funding conditions and sets the stage for whatever policy comes next.

If true QE eventually returns, that’s when bull markets typically shift from grinding higher → breaking out aggressively.

Bottom line:

QT ending removes the headwind.

QE — if it arrives — becomes the tailwind.

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