Mixed data. Volatile price action. Clear message: markets are pricing a slower growth trajectory with sticky wage pressures.
đKey takeaways from the weekâs macro releases and their immediate market impacts:
đ US Labor Market â Soft Headline, Hot Wages
âą Nonfarm Payrolls: +50K (vs +60K expected) â clear miss
âą Average Hourly Earnings YoY: 3.8% (vs 3.6% exp) â strongest beat of the cycle
âą Earlier ADP: only +41K
Impact:
- 10-year Treasury yield dropped 12bps intraday on weak headline â rate-cut odds for March jumped to 72%
- Wage beat capped the rally â yields closed the week only 5bps lower
- $DXY fell 0.8% on net dovish read, supporting risk assets
- $SPX +1.2% on the day, $NDX +1.8% as tech led the âbad news is good newsâ trade
đ US PMIs â Tale of Two Economies
âą ISM Manufacturing: 47.9 (miss) â contraction deepens
âą ISM Services: 54.4 (strong beat vs 52.3 exp)
Impact:
- Early-week manufacturing miss pressured cyclicals and $DXY
- Services beat stabilized sentiment â financials and small-caps outperformed late week
- VIX dropped from 16.8 to 14.2 as growth fears eased slightly
đ„ Bottom Line
Markets interpreted the week as:
- Growth slowing (good for bonds & growth stocks)
- Wages refusing to cool (bad for aggressive Fed easing)
Net result: steeper curve, lower real yields, higher equity multiples.
Risk assets remain in control as long as wage growth doesnât force a genuine hawkish repricing.
Watch next week: US CPI (Wed) and PPI (Thu) will decide if this dovish bias holds.
Positioning: Overweight quality growth, credit, and commodity-sensitive names. Stay nimble on rates.
last but not least
HAVE THE BEST WEEKEND OF YOUR LIFE!
#MarketWrap #NFP #USEconomy #FedWatch #Investing
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